CONSTRUCTION OF BUSINESS MODEL FOR FORECASTING OF STRATEGIC INDICATORS OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE ORGANIZATION

Abstract

Under modern management conditions in the periods of economic and financial crises the financial results of the organization are the basic indicator of successful economic activity. In this connection the analysis and forecasting of financial results is the basis of administrative decision making on the development and perfection of the company activity. Business model for forecasting of strategic indicators of the organization development is a requirement of its development under conditions of unstable environment. Works of many known domestic and foreign scientists are devoted to business modelling problems. However the problem of business modelling of strategic indicators of the organization development is covered in the scientific literature insufficiently, and many theoretical and practical aspects should be explained and specified. The authors investigate the interpretation of ‘business model’ concept from the position of different approaches. In the article it is proved, that effective forecasting of strategic indicators of the organization - financial results -cannot do without software products. For the solution of the problem comparative analysis of such software products as Deductor Studio, gretl, Eviews, SPSS, Microsoft Excel has been carried out. The score of their efficiency in business model to forecast strategic indicators of the organization development is done. The results of software product use for the description, optimization and regulation of the organization business processes, construction of corporate architecture Business Studio for business model designing are reflected in the article. For construction of business model to forecast strategic indicators of the organization development the software product was applied for forecasting of financial results of enterprise "Form1" activity written by us with language C # by means of applications development framework Microsoft Visual Studio. In the research the results of forecasting with the method of trends extrapolation with such mathematical functions as linear, exponential and, logarithmic and forecasting method with Cobb-Douglas production function have been received. As a result of the research the authors proved, that Deductor Studio software product allows constructing more exact business model for forecasting of strategic indicators of the organization activity as it used the method of neural nets. As recommendations The authors recommended modernization of “Form1” software product by addition of the forecasting method using neural networks to get better business model at forecasting of strategic indicators of the organisation activity